A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
